Who will and should win at the 2024 Emmys?

Would it surprise anyone to learn a small cluster of TV shows is expected to triumph at the Emmys this month? The A.V. Club has made its stance on The Television Academy’s habit of honoring a chosen few programs for the most part, as it did for the big 2023 winners: Succession, Beef, and The Bear. This time around, the latter might sweep again in the comedy categories, with FX’s Shōgun and Netflix’s Baby Reindeer set to dominate the drama and limited-series ones.   

While it’s good to place your bets on them, the 2024 Emmys could always benefit with curveballs and throwing the spotlight on different deserving gems (including Beckham for docuseries and Late Night With Seth Meyers for talk series). For the sake of these predictions, we stick with the 15 main categories to determine whether voters will go for the favorites or lean towards surprises. 

The 2024 Emmys, hosted by Schitt’s Creek stars Eugene and Dan Levy, airs September 15 on ABC. 

Outstanding Drama Series

Up until May, The Crown was the drama to beat at the 2024 Emmys. The Netflix series has been nominated for every season so far, and it won massively in 2021. Although the final batch of episodes isn’t as well-regarded as the earlier outings, voters might opt to recognize Peter Morgan’s historical drama one last time. However, major competition now stems from FX’s Japan-set epic Shōgun, which sneakily switched to drama as its renewal makes it unqualified for limited series. A prolific Shōgun quickly earned critical and audience praise (for damn good reasons, too). It should absolutely win, especially when compared to the other nominations. 

Prime Video’s Mr. & Mrs.Smith and Fallout are solid shows with slim chances in light of the top two choices. Meanwhile, HBO’s The Gilded Age and Apple TV+’s The Morning Show are fluffy entertainers. Netflix’s complex 3 Body Problem’s advantage (and disadvantage) is that it hails from Game Of Thrones‘ creators. At least an ever-reliable and thrilling Slow Horses earned a well-deserved nomination. 

Will win: Shōgun

Could win: The Crown

Should win: Shōgun

Outstanding Actress in a Drama Series

Once again, it’s Shōgun versus The Crown as Anna Sawai and Imelda Staunton battle it out. In our books, Sawai steals it with her performance as Lady Mariko, a character that required equal parts vulnerability and strength—and usually without much dialogue. Meanwhile, Staunton’s previous Queen Elizabeth portrayers have bagged an Emmy, a streak that could be broken thanks to Shōgun. 

Maya Erskine in Mr. & Mrs. Smith and Carrie Coon in The Gilded Age are memorable, but neither shows have the same buzz. Now, The Morning Show’s two nominated leads are quite famous, even if the show or the performances don’t nearly match up to the other nominations. (This is where we mourn the lack of The Curse’s Emma Stone.) Regardless, Jennifer Aniston’s SAG win in 2020 might favor her slightly more than Reese Witherspoon. Hopefully, this is Sawai’s trophy to lose.  

Will win: Anna Sawai, Shōgun

Could win: Imelda Staunton, The Crown

Should win: Anna Sawai, Shōgun

Outstanding Actor in a Drama Series 

Let’s face it: Shōgun wouldn’t be what it is without Hiroyuki Sanada’s work as Lord Yoshii Toranaga. He gives a towering yet subtle performance, the kind that beckons a season two against the odds. However, this category is a little unpredictable in the absence of The Crown. Instead, Slow Horses’ Gary Oldman and Fallout’s Walton Goggins are runners-up. Oldman’s take on a slouchy British spy and Goggins’ on a popular video-game antagonist underline their versatility, so either wouldn’t be a surprising choice if it wasn’t for the suspected Shōgun sweep.

Erskine’s Mr. & Mrs. Smith co-star Donald Glover has goodwill with voters because of Atlanta, but sadly the show doesn’t have as much swing (although several big-name cameos have secured guest-star nominations). Idris Elba’s Hijack nod was a genuine shocker—and don’t expect the talented star to win just yet. (Let us also take this opportunity to wonder when voters will catch up with Zahn McClarnon’s turn on Dark Winds). 

Will win: Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun

Could win: Gary Oldman, Slow Horses 

Should win: Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nothing screams monopoly like four The Morning Show nominations in the same category. It feels aggressive for a TV show that isn’t very good at all, but at least Greta Lee, Nicole Beharie, and Karen Pittman get some long-overdue recognition alongside Holland Taylor, who earned her fifth nod to date. The risk of recognizing the same show is, of course, split voting, which means no one from TMS will likely win, despite Lee’s great turn in Past Lives and Beharie’s welcome return to TV. 

The chances are even lower thanks to The Crown’s Elizabeth Debicki, whose Princess Diana was a worthy follow-up to Emma Corrin’s. Both of them have secured a nomination and lost once, but maybe the second time is a charm for Debicki. She competes alongside The Crown’s Lesley Manville and The Gilded Age’s Christine Baranski, two powerhouse actors who could turn the tables. Hey, as long as said tables are turned away from TMS, we’re good.  

Will win: Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown

Could win: Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age 

Should win: Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown  

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Okay, enough TMS bashing because if anyone genuinely relishes in the melodrama of this Apple TV+ series, it’s Billy Crudup. He deliriously aces every line delivery, turning Cory Ellison into the show’s best character. Will he be a repeat winner after 2020? We’d wager yes, but Shōgun’s Tadanobu Asano could continue that show’s sweep, as his evolution of Lord Yabushige was a standout. Also in the mix are Shōgun’s Takehiro Hira along with TMS’ Mark Duplass and Jon Hamm. (The latter two don’t hold a candle to their co-star Crudup in this case.) And in the year Slow Horses finally gets its due at the Emmys, let’s not discount Jack Lowden.

Will win: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show 

Could win: Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun

Should win: Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun

Outstanding Comedy Series 

Everything’s coming up The Bear. If the show’s debut run secured a sweep, it’s only fair to assume the even better second season of Christopher Storer’s FX series will dominate again. But then there’s Hacks. HBO’s comedy returned for a very funny third season, with Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder poised to win their categories. Voters might also give Hacks this big win. It’s going to be a tussle between “Fishes” and “Forks” and Deborah and Ava’s weighty finale confrontation, huh? 

That doesn’t count formidable competitors like ABC’s Abbott Elementary and HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm. Hit shows like Hulu’s Only Murders In The Building and FX’s What We Do In The Shadows will have to be happy with their nominations for now. If there was any justice, though, Reservation Dogs would be the FX show sweeping the category for being consistently wise and goofy. While focusing specifically on the Indigenous characters at its core, it remained universally relatable until the end. Rez Dogs may have bid us goodbye, but let’s hope it gets a proper sendoff at the Emmys. 

Will win: The Bear

Could win: Hacks

Should win: Reservation Dogs

Outstanding Actress in a Comedy Series

This year’s lineup consists of comedic icons like Loot’s Maya Rudolph and Palm Royale’s Kristen Wiig. The SNL alums are talented and popular, hence the nods, but unfortunately stuck in Apple TV+ Land. Not enough people, including voters, are watching their shows. In fact, it’s worth asking why actors from well-reviewed series like We Are Lady Parts, Reservation Dogs, and Girls5eva aren’t in this stacked lineup. (Devery Jacobs and Reneé Elise Goldsberry, you will be avenged.)  

That leaves us with former winner Quinta Brunson, a great choice. The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri moves from supporting to lead actor for season two. She would’ve probably had this in the bag if Hacks hadn’t returned. However, we’re guessing two-time winner Jean Smart is about to add another Emmy trophy to her shelf. 

Will win: Jean Smart, Hacks

Could win: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear

Should win: Jean Smart, Hacks 

Outstanding Actor in a Comedy Series

Three actors from different FX comedies are duking it out here, with The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White primed to be a repeat winner. However, another Bear deserves to come out on top this year: Rez Dogs’ D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai. The only one of the cast who got an acting nomination (the rest were snubbed big time), he holds his own against icons like OMITB’s Martin Short and Steve Martin, and Curb’s Larry David. In season three, by leading his character Bear through a reckoning, Woon-A-Tai proved his merit. Don’t worry, we haven’t forgotten WWDITS’ Matt Berry, who should have countless trophies for his line deliveries alone as the vampire Laszlo Cravensworth. We’d settle for one for the show’s sixth and final season this fall. 

Will win: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Could win: Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm 

Should win: D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

How do you beat Meryl Streep and Carol Burnett? The OMITB and Palm Royale actors step into the Emmys fold this year, although it’s worth remembering that Burnett’s character was in a coma for several episodes and barely had any lines. Meanwhile, Janelle James has been killing it with one-liner after one-liner in Abbott Elementary, making us literally laugh out loud. While she’s been nominated each year, a win would sweeten the deal, just like it did for her co-star Sheryl Lee Ralph, who could win again this year. But that’s only if Hannah Einbinder doesn’t outdo them all. In the third season of Hacks, Einbinder brings unexpected gravitas as Ava deals with the pitfalls of her friendship with Deborah, so her first Emmy win would be justified. 

Will win: Hannah Einbinder, Hacks

Could win: Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary 

Should win: Janelle James, Abbott Elementary  

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Warm up your vocals with Taylor Swift’s “Love Story” to cheer on Ebon Moss-Bachrach’s second Emmy win. The actor is all but certain to get the gold after “Forks,” and we couldn’t be more thrilled. The Bear’s Lionel Boyce gave a subtly moving performance in season two’s “Honeydew,” but that installment didn’t nab as much attention. They are both primarily competing with expected standouts like Hacks’ Paul W. Downs, Abbott Elementary’s Tyler James Williams, and SNL’s Bowen Yang. Amongst them, the first two are higher up in the running, although it is nice to see Yang as the SNL actor to be recognized this year. As for Paul Rudd, it’s just cool that his deranged OMITB performance make it in here. 

Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear 

Could win: Paul W. Downs, Hacks

Should win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

Outstanding Limited Series

Two famous Emmy-winning anthologies returned over the past year, True Detective and Fargo, which both delivered ace casts, thrilling plots, and sparking water-cooler conversations. This fierce competition was made even more interesting with Steven Zailian’s stylish and brilliant Ripley on Netflix. Meanwhile, Apple TV+’s Lessons In Chemistry also garnered a fanbase and plenty of other award nominations. 

Despite this, leading the charge for Outstanding Limited Series is an entrant no one anticipated: Baby Reindeer. Richard Gadd’s darkly comedic show, based on his real experience with a stalker, gained a lot of word-of-mouth traction for its shock and emotional depths. After winning at TCA, Baby Reindeer is likely to become the underdog that pushes out TD and Fargo to steal the show. At least this will keep the Netflix-vs.-HBO battle alive.  

Will win: Baby Reindeer

Could win: True Detective: Night Country 

Should win: Ripley

Outstanding Actress in a Limited Series

Jodie Foster’s return to TV will be celebrated, dammit. The actor’s turn as True Detective’s snarky Chief Liz Danvers could lead to certain victory if it wasn’t for two comedy-turned-drama nominees. Ted Lasso’s Juno Temple and Modern Family’s Sofia Vergara displayed range in their respective shows, but Vergara’s performance as a cartel queen in Griselda was particularly surprising. The Netflix series also has a big viewership, which could bode well for her. That said, TL’s recency bias may do the same for Temple. 

Naomi Watts is another big name in the mix for Feud season two, a Ryan Murphy anthology that failed to take off in the way season one did. Brie Larson’s performance in Lessons In Chemistry was a delight—she’s been nominated for every major award for it—but it won’t help against your Fosters and Vergaras. 

Will win: Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country  

Could win: Juno Temple, Fargo

Should win: Sofia Vergara, Griselda 

Outstanding Actor in a Limited Series 

Netflix has got a Sophie’s Choice situation with Richard Gadd and Andrew Scott. The Baby Reindeer phenomenon could work wonders for Gadd. This is a tough story to relive, and Gadd does it with aplomb, but he could also be bestowed with a writing Emmy instead. Fleabag’s Scott already has voters’ attention—and let’s face it: He was impeccable as Tom Ripley, slyly maneuvering around Italian landscapes to commit crimes and evade being captured. 

Double nominee Jon Hamm, who was finally awarded an Emmy for Mad Men’s final season, was remarkably better in Fargo than in The Morning Show (it is what it is), making him an upset winner. But it’s Matt Bomer’s crushing, layered performance in Fellow Travelers that marked an impressive turn for the actor, who was nominated 10 years ago for The Normal Heart. Bomer was also involved for years in helping bring Fellow Travelers to life. Meanwhile, Feud’s Tom Hollander is stuck in the same position as Watts for being part of an anthology season that quickly lost steam. 

Will win: Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer

Could win: Andrew Scott, Ripley 

Should win: Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series 

Baby Reindeer wouldn’t be as affecting without Jessica Gunning’s terrifying portrayal of a woman suffering from mental illness. Despite the character’s actions, she makes you want to empathize with Martha. While the real-life incidents are marred with legal claims, it doesn’t deter her from being a frontrunner, despite Baby Reindeer co-star Nava Mau and Ripley’s Dakota Fanning being in the lineup. The supporting actress category also boasts two talented Indigenous performers in Under The Bridge’s Lily Gladstone and True Detective’s Kali Reis, who both have a solid shot. All in all, this is one of the more interesting categories of the night. 

Will win: Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer 

Could win: Lily Gladstone, Under The Bridge 

Should win: Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series

Jonathan Bailey is having a big year. The Bridgerton and Wicked star’s moment could lead to an Emmy for Fellow Travelers after he rightfully won the Critics’ Choice Award for going toe-to-toe with Bomer. That said, The Sympathizer’s Robert Downey Jr. is a strong contender, except it sucks that he’s the only actor from Park Chan-wook’s HBO series to score a nom despite its primarily Vietnamese cast. This category has a fun mix, with Fargo’s Lamorne Morris, Lessons In Chemistry’s Lewis Pullman, and True Detective’s John Hawkes, who all—as opposed to Bailey—get a boost from their shows being nominated for Outstanding Limited Series.  

Will win: Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers

Could win: Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer 

Should win: Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers