It happens every spring: not
love, not baseball, but another set of 12 American Idol finalists, vying for the nation's affection, votes
and, frequently, collective mortification. Here, The A.V. Club's resident AI obsessives handicap the field, noting who we're looking forward to
hearing week after week, and who we're counting on to flame out spectacularly.
Noel
Murray: So we've already lost one finalist, Melissa, who
probably should've been gone even earlier, at the end of the last round. Once
the crew got out of Hollywood Week and into the round of 24, the contestants
shook out into three groups: the "What the hell were the judges thinking?," the
"What's their name again?," and the highly exclusive "Can't wait to hear them
sing." Melissa was in the thick of that middling group. Okay voice. No
personality. Not exactly someone you'd think of as one of the 12 most promising
young singers in America.
On
the whole though, this is one of the most potentially entertaining groups the
show's ever produced, both for its originality and its potential for train
wrecks. That's why I'm hoping that Bucky gets voted off next. He's a mediocre
singer doing a one-note hick-shtick, but he's not so awful that he'll be deliciously painful to watch in
future weeks.
How
about you, Scott? Who would you oust?
Scott Tobias: I'll confess to only following the show closely over
the last few weeks or so, once the lads and lasses were divided into groups of
12 after Hollywood Week, because I just couldn't take the audition shows any
longer. I know these episodes are extremely popular—and hey, the William
Hung phenomenon finally paid off on those glorious final episodes of Arrested
Development when his Hung Jury performed
on Mock Trial With J. Reinhold
(alternate title: Judge Reinhold)—but,
to me, they make the show seem like it's Step One of Fox's diabolical plan for
world domination. A few of the golden voices make an appearance, but only for
their image (polished, freshly scrubbed, All-American) to be contrasted with
the outsiders and freaks (the fat, the deluded, the sexually ambiguous, the
sexually unambiguous) who won't be allowed to reproduce in some dystopian
future of Rupert Murdoch's imagining. (Like Gattaca, but with reruns of That '70s Show.)
And
yet perhaps the freaks had their day this year, because once the groups had
been whittled down to 12 and 12, the guys turned out to be the motliest
collection of goobers since… well… the audition shows. And the freakiest ones
of all are still alive in the competition: Taylor Hicks, the prematurely gray
29-year-old from Alabama; Bucky Covington, another Southerner who looks raggedy
no matter how many extreme makeovers he gets; and last but definitely not
least, Kevin Covais, the sort of bespectacled runt whose high voice might be
explained by all the nad-crushing wedgies he must have gotten in grade school.
It
never occurred to me to want to keep someone on for being "deliciously
painful," so I can sympathize with your desire to see Bucky ousted. Like last
week's loser, Melissa McGhee, he's far too bland to make much of a dent in the
competition, occupying some uncomfortable space between the weird dynamism of
Taylor and the Scott Stapp-like rock wailings of Chris Daughtry. And I expect
him to go out the same way as Melissa, with the judges more or less praising
him for an adequate performance and America being uninspired to text-message
him through to the next round.
But
who deserves to go? Unquestionably
Mr. Covais, whose talents as a singer, a dancer, and a stage presence have
escaped me entirely. And here's the thing that's most disturbing about him:
Thanks to Paula Abdul, he's constantly referred to now as a "sex symbol." Okay,
I'm confused: When you call this kid a sex symbol, are we still talking about
the sex that involves fucking and whatnot? Or is there some other kind of sex
that's possibly presaged by a choirboy singing "Starry Starry Night" in an
angelic voice? For me, Covais' performance of Stevie Wonder's "Part-Time Lover"
last week recalled Season Three "crooner" John Stevens' infamous attempt at
Elton John's "Crocodile Rock," a song well outside his narrow comfort zone. The
public kept Stevens around for weeks—nay, months—after he deserved to go (thank God they let
this season's crooner loose before the Final 12), and I have a feeling they'll
be charitable to Covais for the same reason. He seems like a nice boy and he's
trying real hard and performing on American Idol is probably a nice break from his paperboy route. But
he's obviously not built to last.
Any
other chaff from this season's group?
NM: Kevin stands out for sure, though I think he's
actually got a good voice underneath all that unearned swagger. Too bad he
didn't wait a couple of years to enter. With a little training, he could've
been more a Clay Aiken than a John Stevens. But unlike John, who seemed to
shrink up week after week under the heat of Simon's criticism, Kevin looks like
he's going to use his popularity as a weapon. Which, to me, means he deserves
whatever lashings he receives.
What
is it with the contestants' arrogance this year? She's long-gone now, but
Brenna was on her way to being the poster girl for AI '06 for a while there, between her prematurely
diva-ish behavior and her insistence that "America loves me." I know the show
is more popular than ever, but when are these kids going to realize that only
the top two or three are going to have any real chance to be pop stars? The
rest can look forward to a summer on the state fair circuit and maybe a
callback from the touring company of Rent.
Anyway,
now that Brenna and the equally over-confident Gedeon are off the docket,
things have mellowed considerably. But that doesn't mean there aren't still
some characters. You've already mentioned Taylor, who's a total nutjob. He can
really sing—or at the least, he can imitate Ray Charles and Michael
McDonald—and he's undeniably exuberant, but he doesn't seem entirely
aware of where he is or what he's doing. I can't imagine what it would be like
to sit around and discuss foreign policy with him.
The
same is true for Kellie, this season's pretty belle from BFE. I've just about
had it with her "Yesterday I 'et me some goat cheese" routine. I'm sure she's
genuinely wide-eyed and not just playing to the camera, but I don't think she
sings well enough to excuse all the ditziness. Though I admit I laughed out
loud when Simon called her a "minx" and she chirped, "I'm a mink!"
I'm
not sure what to make of Ace, the smoldering hunk with the unnaturally high
voice. He's had two passable performances in a row, but his voice just isn't
that strong, and frankly his West Hollywood lover-boy bit looks kind of silly.
I predict that before this is all over, Ace will deliver at least one
legendarily awful performance.
Then
of course there are a handful of contestants that I think are pretty good, but
that I can't see winning for one reason or another. But I'll let you go first.
Who's on your list?
ST: Just the name "Kellie Pickler" gives me the willies,
and she's got a personality to match. Everyone praises her for being adorable
and likable, but is it really possible to know that little about the world and
still be able to stand upright? It's amazing to watch her process information
whenever someone speaks to her: The period between when something is said and
when it's actually processed is unusually long, as if her brain is still
running on a 14.4 baud modem while everybody else has gone broadband. And like
Kevin and many other Idols past, her appearance and demeanor is totally
pre-sexual, which I guess is how you can throw around terms like "sex symbol"
without them being particularly descriptive.
Ace
is a fascinating case. He's a smoldering hunk, as you say, but I'm not sure any
dads need to lock up their daughters, if you catch my drift. That high voice of
his never quite matches the notes, yet I found his performance of Michael
Jackson's "Butterflies" to be a disarming little high-wire act, one that was
threatened at all times by the possibility of a Peter Brady croak. But against
a pretty strong field, I don't think he's built to last. Other good-not-great
candidates: Lisa Tucker and Paris Bennett have strong enough voices to make a
dent, but I don't see either one of them going the distance. Tucker spent some
time with a Lion King touring
company and I wouldn't be surprised to hear Simon bring that up if she manages
a lackluster performance. She's polished but not leading lady material, and her
youth will eventually be her undoing. Ditto Bennett, who may have a bigger
voice than Tucker's, but lacks maturity and presence. Perhaps she'll emerge
later in the competition with a song that can give those pipes a workout, but
compared to some of the stronger women, she withers a bit in my eyes.
To
step back briefly from the competitors themselves, how do you feel about the
rest of the show this year? Truth be told, American Idol has always been an odd obsession with me: I'm
irritated by it 95% of the time, yet I can't turn away. TiVo has helped make it
more palatable: I never watch the elimination shows in full (I fast-forward to
the eliminations, basically) and I'll also zip by a lot of the material between
performances and even through performances that are starting to bore me a
little. What's more, I don't really like how these songs are sung much of the
time; performers are required to stick the high notes, but often to the song's
detriment, as if they're not really feeling the lyrics. I think the reason why people were so
moved by Fantasia's rendition of "Summertime" is that she tailored her voice to
the song, not the other way around. And Taylor sold "Living For The City"
because he tapped into the spirit of the thing, not because he showcased the
virtuosic voice he doesn't possess.
So
why do I watch? I confess that the show's popularity is a draw. If American
Idol was #100 in the Nielson's
instead of #1, I don't know that I'd care about it that much. The fact that
this cheesy karaoke show actually does change the face of popular
music—and popular culture in general—makes it compelling. That so
many people watch also raises the stakes and makes you nervous for the
performers, who do occasionally wilt under the pressure. But the primary reason
I watch remains Simon Cowell. The sadist in me wants him to put these kids in their
place, but mostly, his criticism is just dead-on most of the time. What's more,
I think the contestants and the audience, however often they vocalize their
displeasure with his opinions, look to him as the real standard-bearer of
excellence. Goodness knows, you're not going to get much from Randy or Paula
other than catchphrases repeated ad nauseum. Randy strikes me as being as lazy
and complacent as an overfed cat; just pull a string behind his back and out
come one of about six or seven pre-recorded phrases ("you worked it out," "it
was only all right for me," "we got a hot one," etc.). As for Paula, she's a
constant irritation, the judging equivalent of Earl Dittman. To see her dancing
around and clapping and giving ovations during performances bothers me in the
same way as a Chicago movie critic who shows up at every James Bond screening
wearing his promotional Goldeneye
jacket. If you want to wave a banner, do it from the sidelines, please.
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NM: I wouldn't mind Randy and Paula being so vacuous and tin-eared
if they'd just let Simon talk. I expect the audience to boo when Simon starts
to be critical, but his fellow judges should at least let him finish his point,
rather than acting shocked that he saw through the
high-school-talent-show-level performance they all just watched. I'm especially
annoyed at Ryan, who keeps urging Simon to "give constructive criticism," when
in fact that's exactly what he does, most of the time—the exception being
the time he falls back on his staple "karaoke" and "cabaret" jibes. Mostly he
tells the contestants to look, act and sing like somebody who might interest
potential record-buyers, and not like somebody barely good enough to be an
understudy at a Branson stage spectacular.
You
said you bailed on the audition rounds, but the general consensus was that
Simon was being way too mean—an opinion that I pretty much shared. I
wouldn't go so far as to call him homophobic or anti-fat, but he did generally
act like the kind of guy who bullied nerds around in school. He's a front-runner,
no doubt.
And
yet, as you say, he's right most of the time. Which is why I find it
interesting that so many of the contestants in the final 24 (though not so much
in the top 12) were people that Simon nixed during the audition phase. Taylor
is the keenest example. I don't think Taylor's popularity with the judges will
persist all the way to the end. At a certain point, Simon's going to crack down
on him, because Taylor's not really a marketable American Idol.
So
who will win? If you'd asked me after the audition round, I'd have said that
Paris was a lock, because she has the kind of naturally warm and original tone
that I look forward to hearing. But she's pretty much tanked ever since, in my
opinion. The tone's still there, but she's been over-singing and
over-performing every song, all while dressed like a bank teller on casual
Friday.
If
you'd ask me to pick a winner after the round of 24, I'd say it was clearly
Elliot, who again has a nice tone and the ability to sing all the notes of a
song well, instead of mumbling to the chorus like so many Idol-wannabes. But
Elliot ended the round of 24 with a lousy version of Bryan Adams' "Heaven," and
he came out on Stevie Wonder night—a night practically designed for
him—and gave a trembly, overdone performance of a really great song. So
I'm worried about Elliot. Maybe he needs to dismiss that 40-piece rock band the
show has stuffed in the wings, and just order up a grand piano.
As
I see it, there are two clear front-runners, and they're both ladies, and neither
of them is the über-bland Lisa. See if you can guess who I'm talking about.
ST: It's interesting to me how much the show is informed
by Simon's pre-conceived ideas about what constitutes an American Idol. Taylor
certainly doesn't fit with that conception—hence the "no" vote in the
audition phase–and that smile that's been crossing his face after every
Taylor performance is telling. He knows the guy is wrong for the part, but he
has to concede that this train-wreck of a man keeps whistling down the rails. I
expect him to pounce on Taylor the moment his weaknesses become readily
apparent—and they will at some point or points along the different theme
nights—but I think voters will need at least a couple of bad performances
to cut Taylor loose.
Of
course, Simon's words carry a lot of weight (though the occasions in which
Paula shrugs are devastating for being so rare), and for that, Elliot should be
thankful. Simon calling him the best male vocalist the show has ever
had—better than Achin' for Akin, better than the Velvet Teddy
Bear—should give him enough goodwill to carry him through more than a few
flat performances, but I just don't see him showered in confetti at the end. He
lacks presence and passion; if you can't rev it up for Bryan Adam's "Heaven," you
don't have that much-ballyhooed "wow factor."
From
the 12/12 phase, I've felt the women have been leagues ahead of the fellas
(season after season, that seems to be the case) and so it follows that my
front-runners are almost certainly yours as well: Katherine McPhee and Mandisa.
I really don't see any weaknesses in Katherine: She's attractive, personable,
and versatile, capable of adapting her voice to any genre of music while
modulating it to many different registers, not just the big notes. She's also
pacing herself nicely. She may not deliver the most talked about performance
week after week, but what she does manage is always effortless, and I feel like
she's going to break out a show-stopper once the chaff gets cut away and it's
time to make a move.
Mandisa
has been making moves week after week, and she may take this thing by the force
of her voice alone, though I'm not yet convinced she can work her way through
the quieter parts of the song. I wish the judges would emphasize even further
the importance of making the low notes as compelling as the high ones: It's a
little like a figure skater who can nail a triple axel, but can't do all those
wussy little turns and spins that win you the gold. God knows that young
singers are put through a rigorous processing phase throughout the competition
and it's possible that Mandisa will benefit from a little coaching.
Seeing
as how my NCAA tournament brackets are already shot to hell, my
prognostications probably don't mean all that much, but here's how I see the
rest of the competition breaking down. Going soon: Bucky, Ace, Kevin. Going
later: Paris, Lisa, Kellie, Taylor. Going the distance: Mandisa, Katherine,
Chris, Elliot.
What
about you, Noel? Any final pre-diddly-ictions?
NM: Unless Lisa picks up the pace, I bet she'll go
quicker than you think. She's exactly the sort of pleasant, competent performer
that the judges love but that America shrugs off, leading to a shocked Randy
and Paula urging America to vote for their favorites, and Simon giving one of
his pissy "come to Jesus" speeches to the other contestants. ("You've got to raise
your game, people!") And I'm
already wishfully picturing Bucky's "glad to know ya" montage after he gets
booted out, this week or the next.
Kevin
might last longer than you're hoping, because he probably does have a fanbase
of people who think he's cute as the dickens. And as he showed at the audition
round, he's capable of giving a genuinely commanding performance. The rest are
a little harder to handicap. You're right that I've pegged Mandisa as a
final-three-caliber frontrunner, and you're also right that she's slightly
overrated at the moment. It's not just that she's more comfortable screeching
than singing, but that she's not doing anything America hasn't heard before,
thousands of times. She's a knockout performer, but a lack or originality might
sink her over the long haul, unless she delivers a show-stopper every week.
I
don't know what to make of Chris. He's got a great voice and an authentic
"rocker" vibe, and he probably could
be fronting a band and on the charts right now. But I don't know how he's going
to find a way to sing all the themes, unless Red Hot Chili Peppers puts out a
really eclectic covers album soon. And, to quote Simon, "if I'm being honest,"
the kind of music Chris prefers is boring and shitty. It's that
Fuel/Staind/Evanescence/Nickelback "new rock," which is neither new nor,
ultimately, rock—just power ballads covered by jet engine roar.
So
that leaves Katharine, a stunning beauty with confidence, presence, and an
Elliot-like ability to sing all the parts of a song well. She doesn't have the
most distinctive voice in the world, and her fashion choices seem to have been
pulled from a Motherwear catalog,
but the Katharine upside is too high not to imagine her singing a teary
rendition of some crummy pre-fab pop anthem at the end. If all goes as I hope,
she'll be giving Elliot a consolation hug before she does.