What went wrong with Elemental—and where does Pixar go from here?

Even those who had low expectations for the box office prospects of Elemental’s release were surprised by its disappointing tally of just $29.6 million in ticket sales in the film’s opening weekend. That puts Pixar’s latest offering dead last among all of the studio’s debuts, even Onward, which earned $39 million when it opened just as the pandemic arrived in March 2020. Elemental’s poor performance has us asking the same question that’s likely being pondered right now in executive suites at Pixar and Disney: What went wrong? There’s more than one answer, and those answers may lead to even bigger questions.

It might be tempting to attribute Elemental’s failure to lingering pandemic worries about returning to theaters. After all, the weekend’s top film, The Flash, also had a lackluster performance with just $55.7 million in ticket sales (though that title carried an entirely different set of baggage). While it’s true that the specter of Covid still stubbornly lingers over our public spaces, it didn’t seem to have any effect on other animated releases this year, like The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($146.3 million) and Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse ($120.6 million). The success of those films also disproves the theory that audiences have lost interest in animated films or family films. They’re clearly still willing to turn out for certain titles.

Pixar’s identity crisis

At the macro level, we can’t ignore that Pixar’s once sterling brand identity has taken a hit, with its last few releases (like last year’s Lightyear) stumbling critically, commercially, or both. The same can be said for Disney, whose last animated feature, Strange World, earned just $12 million in its opening weekend, ultimately ending its theatrical run with just $37 million in domestic ticket sales. It doesn’t help that the company hasn’t made much of an effort to differentiate the films coming from its two main animation units. It’s no longer so clear what distinguishes a Pixar film from a Disney movie; they all just kind of blend together.

The image problems don’t end there, though. Disney has learned the hard way that you can’t please all the people all the time, especially in a highly polarized political climate. Yet the company still wants to have it both ways. Marketing for Elemental focused on the fantastical setting and simplistic Romeo and Juliet love story, without ever letting on that it’s also an allegory for the immigrant experience and the ways in which outlier communities can be systemically excluded from urban planning and development. Admittedly, that might not fit neatly on a poster. But in hiding the film’s central conceit—possibly to avoid accusations of “wokeness” on the part of professional trolls seeking to stir up controversy, which happened anyway—Pixar ended up with a generic marketing campaign that tried to appeal to everyone, yet didn’t really speak to anyone.

An elemental problem

Drilling down further, what about the film itself? Was there something specific about Elemental that kept moviegoers away? As we mentioned above, the film Disney has been selling doesn’t quite line up with the film it released. Those who caught the trailer or a TV ad (and there were plenty who didn’t) weren’t given much to go on, beyond the impression that it was a formulaic romance between opposites with visuals that resembled other, better, Pixar offerings of the past like Inside Out. While a world populated by the personified elements of fire, water, land, and air might sound interesting, it becomes less so when it feels like it’s just going to be the basis for unfunny sight gags and low-hanging jokes about breaking wind.

Elemental also faced the disadvantage of being an original story that wasn’t based on existing IP. As much as we complain about the prevalence of sequels and spin-offs these days, name recognition counts for a lot at the box office. Pixar’s four highest-grossing films are all sequels, with Incredibles 2 leading the way with an impressive box office total of $608 million domestic and $1.2 billion worldwide. There’s no getting around the fact that a film without any bankable IP is simply a harder sell.

This year’s most successful animated films—The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse–both had known IP going for them. They also had their own visual styles that set them apart from every other film at the multiplex. Super Mario Bros. expanded on pre-existing game imagery and nostalgia for the characters, while Spider-Verse is an artistic tour de force of mixed media and controlled chaos. Both raised the bar for what’s expected from an animated film in 2023, and audiences might not have believed they were going to get anything so special from Elemental.

Financial considerations

There’s one more factor to take into consideration—the price of seeing a movie in a theater. Ticket prices are subject to inflation like everything else in the economy, and when you’re bringing the whole family along, that adds up quickly. Throw in the cost of popcorn and drinks, maybe parking too, and it becomes a luxury that not everyone can afford on a weekly basis. That makes the average moviegoer more discerning about which new releases to see and which to skip.

The decision to skip is made easier by the knowledge that most of these titles will land on streaming within the next few months. During the pandemic, audiences got used to watching films on their home screens, and while the theatrical release schedule has normalized and it’s safer to venture out now, it can still be a hassle. All the same drawbacks from the pre-pandemic era—crowds, rude patrons, cell phones, screaming kids, cramped seats, expensive snacks—are still a factor. Plus you may also have to wear a mask. It’s no wonder that some are saving the experience for only a select few, top-tier releases.

Pixar’s path ahead

Whatever happens with Elemental, whether it picks up steam in the coming weeks with good word of mouth or continues to slide into oblivion, we’re not ready to write off Pixar just yet. It’s not easy for a company as large as Pixar to change course, and it may take a few films to get back on track, but the studio can do it—if it learns from the Elemental campaign and applies those lessons to future projects.

The studio’s next film, Elio, is set for release in March 2024. It’s a sci-fi adventure about a boy who gets abducted by aliens and convinces them he’s the ambassador for Earth. Or at least that’s what we got from the trailer. It might be another uphill battle to convince audiences that this one is worth their time and money, but if the studio focuses on what makes this different from other Pixar films, instead of what makes it the same, it might break through.

Following that is the long-awaited sequel Inside Out 2. There’s also reportedly another Toy Story film on the way. Depending on whether Elio continues the studio’s downward streak, we may be in for many more sequels. Which is fine, as long as they’re loaded with original ideas, compelling characters, and smart stories. Even Disney had a creative slump before it entered its new renaissance with The Little Mermaid in 1989. Perhaps Pixar can follow in the Mouse’s footsteps and recapture some of that old Pixar magic too.