Golden Globes 2024 predictions: Picking the winners for all 27 categories

The nominees:Emily Blunt, OppenheimerDanielle Brooks, The Color PurpleJodie Foster, NyadJulianne Moore, May DecemberRosamund Pike, SaltburnDa’Vine Joy Randolph, The HoldoversWho will win: Da’Vine Joy RandolphThere’s a lot of talent in this category, and each of these performances is special in their own way. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has the edge, though, because of the range and depth she brings to Mary in The Holdovers. Randolph holds the emotional center of the film, and when she falls apart it’s devastating. The role has already earned her a handful of Best Supporting Actress awards from several critics associations, including Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York, so her chances of adding a Golden Globe to the list are pretty good.

The nominees:Charles Melton, May DecemberMark Ruffalo, Poor ThingsRobert De Niro, Killers Of The Flower MoonRobert Downey Jr., OppenheimerRyan Gosling, BarbieWillem Dafoe, Poor ThingsWho will win: Charles MeltonWhile awards analysts are favoring Robert Downey Jr. or even Ryan Gosling, we’re going out on a limb with an unconventional pick. There’s a path for May December’s Charles Melton to be a surprise upset winner in this category. He’s already been recognized by a few prestigious critics organizations and it’s been fascinating to see his rise from out of nowhere this awards season. Consider what it’s taken for him to get any kind of notice among the impressive names in this category. Melton was able to hold his own in the film against two powerful and seasoned performers in Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore, and that’s no small feat. We’re predicting the Joe-mentum will carry him through.

The nominees:Annette Bening, NyadCailee Spaeny, PriscillaCarey Mulligan, MaestroGreta Lee, Past LivesLily Gladstone, Killers Of The Flower MoonSandra Hüller, Anatomy Of A FallWho will win: Lily GladstoneEven before the nominations come out, the Best Actress Oscar category is already shaping up to be a two woman race between Lily Gladstone for Killers Of The Flower Moon and Emma Stone for Poor Things. And just like last year, when Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh were the two top contenders, the split between drama and comedy/musical films means Gladstone and Stone won’t have to go up against each other at the Golden Globes. We’re not counting out a surprise win from someone like Carey Mulligan or Greta Lee, but Gladstone has a clear lead here heading into the final stretch.

The nominees:Andrew Scott, All Of Us StrangersBarry Keoghan, SaltburnBradley Cooper, MaestroCillian Murphy, OppenheimerColman Domingo, RustinLeonardo DiCaprio, Killers Of The Flower MoonWho will win: Cillian MurphyTalk of a potential Oscar for Cillian Murphy has been going on since Oppenheimer came out last summer, so this may be an obvious pick. Still, we think it’s the right one. There’s nothing that gets the hearts of awards voters fluttering like a prestige biopic with an actor who disappears into the role. Of course, that’s also true for Bradley Cooper’s Maestro. At this point the two actors are running a very close race, but we’re giving Murphy a slight advantage due to the cinematic scope of Oppenheimer in comparison to the more contained and intimate portrait of Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. We wouldn’t call it an upset if Cooper walks away with the statue, though.

The nominees:Alma Pötsti, Fallen LeavesEmma Stone, Poor ThingsFantasia Barrino, The Color PurpleJennifer Lawrence, No Hard FeelingsMargot Robbie, BarbieNatalie Portman, May DecemberWho will win: Emma StoneEmma Stone’s main competition in her bid for another Oscar, Killers Of The Flower Moon’s Lily Gladstone, isn’t in this category, so it’s a safe call to go with Stone for the win here. Not that the likes of Margot Robbie and Natalie Portman aren’t intimidatingly talented, their roles just weren’t as showy as this one. Stone brings a striking physicality and fierce determination to her Poor Things character Bella Baxter in a way that’s simply unmatched by anyone else this year.

The nominees: Jeffrey Wright, American FictionJoaquin Phoenix, Beau Is AfraidMatt Damon, AirNicolas Cage, Dream ScenarioPaul Giamatti, The HoldoversTimothée Chalamet, WonkaWho will win: Paul GiamattiThough Paul Giamatti’s character in The Holdovers is a bitter crank for most of the film, you can somehow tell that he’s having a blast playing this guy. You could also say that about many of the other actors in this category, but what sets him apart is the way he brings Mr. Hunham to life and makes us care about him, peeling away the outer layers and showing us the human being underneath, but never in a way that seems sappy or cliché. Where other actors might have tripped up in a role like this, Giamatti keeps it all in balance.

The nominees: Bradley Cooper, MaestroCeline Song, Past LivesChristopher Nolan, OppenheimerGreta Gerwig, BarbieMartin Scorsese, Killers Of The Flower MoonYorgos Lanthimos, Poor ThingsWho will win: Christopher NolanChristopher Nolan’s road to the Oscars begins with the Golden Globes. A win here will set him on a clear path as the director to beat this awards season. Best Director is one of only a few categories in which Oppenheimer is competing directly against its fraternal twin Barbie, and we can also never count out Martin Scorsese as a serious contender, but we believe Nolan will ultimately prevail due to the film’s sweeping scope and historical subject matter.

The nominees:AirAmerican FictionBarbieThe HoldoversMay DecemberPoor ThingsWho will win: Poor ThingsIt’s tempting to give this one to Barbie, the film that got the most nominations this year, but the voters have another opportunity to honor the pink blockbuster with this year’s new award for Cinematic and Box Office achievement. That leaves The Holdovers and Poor Things as the main contenders in this category. They’re very different films, each great in their own way, but Poor Things is an achievement of creativity and originality on another level, and that could make the difference.

The nominees:The Boy And The HeronElementalSpider-Man Across The Spider-VerseSuzumeThe Super Mario Bros. MovieWishWho will win: Spider-Man Across The Spider-VerseThe great Hayao Miyazaki did not come out of retirement only to not win a Golden Globe. Just kidding, the Globes are the furthest thing from his mind right now. That’s why—although we appreciate the master’s late-career achievement—we predict Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse will take home the award for best animated film, just like the original did in 2019. The sequel took everything that made that film good and improved upon it, so it’s hard to make a case for any of the other films surpassing it this year.

The nominees:Anatomy Of A FallFallen LeavesIo CapitanoPast LivesSociety Of The SnowThe Zone Of InterestWho will win: Anatomy Of A FallAnatomy Of A Fall has consistently ranked high on critics’ lists of the year’s best films and is very likely headed for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars (it wasn’t submitted in the Foreign Language category there), so its chances for a win in this category are better than good. As much as it was a pleasant surprise to see nominations for Past Lives and The Zone Of Interest, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the voters don’t rule in favor of Anatomy Of A Fall.

The nominees:Celine Song, Past LivesChristopher Nolan, OppenheimerEric Roth, Martin Scorsese, Killers Of The Flower MoonGreta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, BarbieJustine Triet, Arthur Harari, Anatomy Of A FallTony McNamara, Poor ThingsWho will win: Greta Gerwig and Noah BaumbachYou may notice a trend in this category. With the exception of Poor Things, each of the films nominated was directed by a screenwriter, or half of a screenwriting team. It’s also not divided across genre lines like many of the other categories, which makes it not only one of the most competitive races but quite difficult to predict. Any one of these films could potentially win the award, and it would be well deserved in all cases, but based on the amount of nominations it received and for the sake of its originality, we predict Barbie will be the ultimate victor.

The nominees:Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man Across The Spider-VerseJerskin Fendrix, Poor ThingsJoe Hisaishi, The Boy And The HeronLudwig Göransson, OppenheimerMica Levi, The Zone Of InterestRobbie Robertson, Killers Of The Flower MoonWho will win: Ludwig GöranssonIf the story of this year’s Golden Globes is the dominance of Oppenheimer, as we suspect it will be, look for that trend to spread into the less prominent categories as well, like Best Original Score. There were a lot of beautiful scores this year, but Ludwig Göransson’s ambitious, organic musical soundscape for Oppenheimer helps set the pace and tone for the film like no other. Factoring that in, along with the sense that this is Nolan’s year, it adds up to another win for the epic biopic.

The nominees:1923The CrownThe DiplomatThe Last Of UsThe Morning ShowSuccessionWho will win: SuccessionIf there’s a guarantee of anything at the Golden Globes this year, it’s a win for Succession as the best TV drama of the year. Nothing else in this category comes close to the cache and acclaim HBO’s prestige drama received in its final season. And being the final season, this is the last opportunity the voters will have to honor it. We don’t think they’ll pass up the opportunity, and expect a sweep in the other categories it was nominated for as well.

The nominees:Abbott ElementaryBarryThe BearJury DutyOnly Murders In The BuildingTed LassoWho will win: The BearAt last year’s Golden Globes the only award The Bear received was for lead actor Jeremy Allen White. But that was a different voting body, and it was just for season one. The truly excellent second season proved that it wasn’t just a fluke and highlighted the strong ensemble cast, so this time we think it will be appropriately rewarded. It’s certainly the best made show of the group, with Barry coming in a close second. Whether or not either of them actually qualifies as a comedy is another story.

The nominees:All The Light We Cannot SeeBeefDaisy Jones And The SixFargoFellow TravelersLessons In ChemistryWho will win: BeefThis is another idiosyncratic Golden Globes category that lumps in a bunch of very different types of shows, but the most consistently praised among them this year has to be Netflix’s Beef. A thoughtful and artistic study of the ways we are connected and disconnected from each other in modern society, it sticks with you long after you finish watching. And for a show that dropped all the way back in April of last year, that’s a crucial asset. As is the excellent cast, who we think will also get their turns at the podium on Sunday night.

The nominees:Bella Ramsey, The Last Of UsEmma Stone, The CurseHelen Mirren, 1923Imelda Staunton, The CrownKeri Russell, The DiplomatSarah Snook, SuccessionWho will win: Sarah SnookWould it be wild to see Emma Stone win twice for Best Performance in a single evening? Absolutely, but we just don’t see that happening. Instead, we predict that Succession’s big night will include a win for Sarah Snook. She put everything on the table in her final season as Siobhan Roy and she had a hell of a highlight reel to submit for consideration. Snook won a Golden Globe for the role in 2022, but that year she was competing as Best Supporting Actress. Now she’s been appropriately upgraded to lead. The balcony fight with Matthew Macfadyen’s Tom alone is enough to justify a second trophy.

The nominees:Brian Cox, SuccessionDominic West, The CrownGary Oldman, Slow HorsesJeremy Strong, SuccessionKieran Culkin, SuccessionPedro Pascal, The Last Of UsWho will win: Kieran CulkinEveryone watched the final season of Succession in real time and said, “Give Kieran Culkin all the awards,” so it’s time to make good on that expectation. Culkin has always been very good on the show, but this season he was next-level great. Great enough, in fact, to steal this award away from fellow cast members and nominees Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox (both of whom won in previous years). Culkin gave us every note in the symphony of Roman’s extreme highs and lows in the arc of his personal and professional journey, right up to the bitter end. And unlike his castmates, Culkin has yet to win a Golden Globe, so it’s time to correct that oversight.

The nominees:Ayo Edibiri, The BearElle Fanning, The GreatNatasha Lyonne, Poker FaceQuinta Brunson, Abbott ElementaryRachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. MaiselSelena Gomez, Only Murders In The BuildingWho will win: Ayo EdibiriAs is always the case, some of the winners this year are sure things and others are a tossup. This category happens to be the latter. It’s turning out to be a tight two-woman race between last year’s winner, Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson, and the breakout star of The Bear’s second season, Ayo Edibiri, who wasn’t even nominated in 2023. The Bear has gained momentum since then, and Edibiri herself has raised her profile considerably with films like Bottoms and even a guest appearance on Abbott Elementary, so this might be her year.

The nominees:Bill Hader, BarryJason Segel, ShrinkingJason Sudeikis, Ted LassoJeremy Allen White, The BearMartin Short, Only Murders In The BuildingSteve Martin, Only Murders In The BuildingWho will win: Jeremy Allen WhiteThe Bear became more of an ensemble show in the second season, but we still think Jeremy Allen White will score a back-to-back win for his deep and emotional performance as chef-turned-restaurateur Carmy Berzatto in the critically beloved series. As much as the story zoomed out to focus on other characters, Carmy was the center around which everything else turned. All of the actors in this category delivered exceptional performances in their respective shows this year, but White had arguably better material to work with and he nailed every curve the writers threw at him.

The nominees:Ali Wong, BeefBrie Larson, Lessons In ChemistryElizabeth Olsen, Love & DeathJuno Temple, FargoRachel Weisz, Dead RingersRiley Keough, Daisy Jones And The SixWho will win: Ali WongBeef is not an easy series to watch, and the character of Amy Lau is not easy to like; that’s kind of the whole point. In the hands of another actress it could have gone horribly wrong, but Wong brings an empathy to Amy that helps you understand the rage and dissatisfaction within her even as she does unconscionable things. It was one of the best performances we saw last year, and deserves to be recognized as such.

The nominees:David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass ReevesJon Hamm, FargoMatt Bomer, Fellow TravelersSam Clafin, Daisy Jones And The SixSteven Yeun, BeefWoody Harrelson, White House PlumbersWho will win: Steven YeunAs great as Ali Wong is in Beef—and she really, really is—her best scenes in the series are the ones where she gets to act opposite series co-lead Steven Yeun. His character, Danny, is both her nemesis and spiritual twin. He’s also terrific individually as Danny searches for meaning in his own life, only to gradually spiral ever more out of control. It wouldn’t be right to give an acting award to one and not the other, so we’re predicting Wong and Yeun will both be honored in their respective categories.

The nominees:Abby Elliot, The BearChristina Ricci, YellowjacketsElizabeth Debicki, The CrownHannah Waddingham, Ted LassoJ. Smith-Cameron, SuccessionMeryl Streep, Only Murders In The BuildingWho will win: Meryl StreepHere’s where we might find out whether the new Golden Globes voters are as starstruck as the old HFPA used to be. In the old days we could have been relatively sure that Meryl Streep would run away with this award, but now there may be room for The Crown’s Elizabeth Debicki to sneak in for her performance as Lady Di. Streep is still our pick, though, not just because she’s Meryl Fucking Streep but because she was actually quite good in Only Murders In The Building as a meek actress who’s waited and struggled her entire career to be recognized for her talent. Talk about playing against type.

The nominees:Alan Ruck, SuccessionAlexander Skarsgård, SuccessionBilly Crudup, The Morning ShowEbon Moss-Bachrach, The BearJames Marsden, Jury DutyMatthew Macfadyen, SuccessionWho will win: Matthew MacfadyenThe Supporting Role category is another one where we’re getting a face-off between two powerhouse shows that are in different categories everywhere else. Although Ebon Moss-Bachrach killed it in this season of The Bear, he’ll have other chances to win in the future. So in the battle of The Bear versus Succession we’re predicting a win for Matthew Macfadyen, the actor who brought us so many iconic moments as Tom Wambsgans. He’ll still have some competition with co-stars Alan Ruck and Alexander Skarsgård in this category, but Macfadyen was an essential part of the fabric of the show in the final season. And besides, Tom ended up beating out all of the Roy siblings for the crown they so coveted, so he’s on a roll.