How the Golden Globe nominations could shape the Oscar race this year

Like it or not, as the first big awards show of the year, the Golden Globes set the tone for everything that comes after. Even with their complicated backstory and the fraught history of the now-defunct Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Golden Globes remain a valuable marketing tool for studios. Their strategic positioning ahead of the Oscars continues to make them a bellwether for awards watchers, and their influence is baked into the system. The fact that Hollywood didn’t permanently sideline the Globes after reports of corruption, a lack of diversity among members of the HFPA, and the show’s recent abysmal ratings is a sign that we’re probably stuck with them for the foreseeable future.

So, what can the nominations announced yesterday by the Golden Globes tell us about how the broader chase for the Academy Awards is shaping up? Remember that the Globes will be televised on CBS on January 7, just days before voting opens for Oscar nominations on January 11, which means Hollywood will be watching the Globes closely to see what insights they can glean into the key races.

As with any awards show nominations, the Globes’ had its share of snubs and surprises yesterday. But in many of the categories, they met expectations. It’s safe to predict that films like Oppenheimer and Killers Of The Flower Moon will be Oscar favorites; what’s interesting to look at which nominees are pacing just behind, and which ones barely made the cut. A nod by the Golden Globes could boost films on the margins, like The Zone Of Interest or Fallen Leaves. On the flip side, films that were overlooked by the Globes in the best feature categories, like The Color Purple, Rustin, or Origin (are we sensing a theme here?), could see their momentum slow even if they earned recognition for some performances.

More is more in the big categories

The Globes nominates six contenders for each of the major categories, compared with five for most of the Oscars races. They also divide best films into dramas and musical or comedy categories, giving the Globes room to include more titles and performers than the Oscars. That amounts to a dozen nominees the Best Picture races. The Globes also added a category this year that’s already become controversial: Cinematic And Box Office Achievement. It’s a shameless attempt to attract more viewers by honoring populist films that might otherwise go unmentioned, and in a year in which hits like Barbie and Oppenheimer are already locked in, the additional category hardly seems necessary. By definition, these films don’t really need the publicity —would an average moviegoer be any more likely to see Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour film now that it has a Golden Globe nomination?—but it certainly makes sense for the Globes to court those audiences.

From big films like Barbie (not so much Oppenheimer, as that film has Oscar bait written into its DNA) to smaller films like Past Lives, a Golden Globe nomination can give Oscar voters permission to see them as Oscar-worthy. In the case of those two films, which were released earlier in the year, it also helps keep them on the minds of voters as shiny new contenders enter the field in the final weeks of the year. We saw that dynamic at work last year with Everything Everywhere All At Once, a film of incredible stamina that carried it through to an Oscar win for Best Picture.

Looking beyond Barbenheimer

It’s not all that surprising that Barbie (eight nominations) edged out Oppenheimer (seven nominations) at the top of the Globes’ film ledger. Of course, Greta Gerwig, Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, and the rest of the fantastic plastic crew got a boost from three nominations in the Best Original Song category (the Academy allows three submissions from a single film, provided they were written by different people). And there are no technical categories at the Globes, which could shift the balance between the two leading contenders come Oscar time.

Perhaps more interesting is that Poor Things tied with Killers Of The Flower Moon with seven nominations each. That means Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest film went toe to toe with Martin Scorsese’s newest effort. The next tier of contenders includes Anatomy Of A Fall (perhaps this year’s Triangle Of Sadness), Maestro, and its Netflix sibling May December, although the latter being shut out in both the directing and writing categories could hurt its chances. Disappointing showings by All Of Us Strangers and Dream Scenario (each landed only a single nomination for lead actor for Andrew Scott and Nicolas Cage, respectively) might also push those films closer to the fringe for voters.

Actors on the upswing

A name on almost no one’s lips before the Globes’ nods were revealed was Alma Pöysti, who was nominated for her lead performance in the Finnish-German comedy Fallen Leaves. The Best Actress category is tight this year, but Pöysti’s nomination may help the film’s chances for an Oscar nod in the international category, as the official submission from Finland. Elsewhere, Cailee Spaeny just saw her stock rise in the Best Actress race as the only representative from Priscilla with a nomination, If she makes the cut for the Oscars, she’ll almost certainly be competing against Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone, and potentially some combination of Margot Robbie, Sandra Hüller, Greta Lee, Carey Mulligan, or Annette Bening. Like we said, it’s an intimidating field.

Over on the men’s side, it’s heartening to see Cage and Scott get recognized for performances in films that have largely remained under the radar. We weren’t shocked to see Joaquin Phoenix make the list, but the fact that he was nominated for Beau Is Afraid and not for Napoleon is eyebrow-raising, to say the least. In fact, Napoleon didn’t secure any nominations, so don’t expect to hear much more about it in the coming months. The same may be true of Ferrari and its star Adam Driver, which were also shut out. Everyone else whose names had to show up at the Globes to keep their Oscar hopes alive, including Bradley Cooper, Leonardo DiCaprio, Barry Keoghan, Colman Domingo, Paul Giamatti, Cillian Murphy, and Jeffrey Wright made the cut. The lack of a Golden Globe nomination doesn’t mean an end to an Oscar bid, of course, it just means a steeper road.