Our (yes, we know, way too early) Oscar 2023 predictions

Look, we know, okay? We know it’s too soon after the to talk about next year’s. But considering how many award-worthy films have already hit theaters, and how many buzzy titles are expected to come throughout 2022, we can’t resist. From indies to blockbusters, underdogs to shoo-ins, The A.V. Club has rounded up our way-too-early predictions (and hopes) for the 95th Academy Awards. Come jump the gun with us! And a full year from now when the Oscar nominations list is announced, please don’t hold us to these semi-educated guesses.

Was this entire article just an excuse to launch the awards campaign for ? Perhaps. Am I simply obsessed with Michelle Yeoh and this A24 hit designed to showcase her as the movie star she’s long been? Unequivocally yes. This gonzo tale of one frazzled woman at the center of an infinite multiverse thrusts the writing-directing-producing “Daniels” (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) to the top of any Oscar predictions-so-far list for sheer originality. They’re aided by mind-boggling editing from Paul Rogers, gorgeous shots—some glimpsed for just milliseconds—from cinematographer Larkin Seiple, and production and costume design from Jason Kisvarday and Shirley Kurata, respectively, that deliver this film’s maximalist vision. Of course, it’s already screened at SXSW and in theaters, and contenders that premiere even before the current year’s Oscars historically have an uphill battle to be remembered by next year’s. But Yeoh and supporting actors Stephanie Hsu and Ke Huy Quan—and, sure, let’s throw the hilarious Jamie Lee Curtis into the mix—deserve to remain in voters’ minds come 2023. Let’s get as many (googly) eyes on this movie as we can, people! [Jack Smart]

Whether or not Matt Reeves’ interpretation of the Caped Crusader proves to be the skeleton key that unlocks more Oscar love for superheroes, there are multiple categories in which his skill as a filmmaker—and his choice of collaborators—seems likely to receive recognition. At three hours, Reeves’ screenplay is decidedly not a study in economy, but cinematographer Greig Fraser works masterfully with light to create a visual language and an atmosphere that resembles a super-powered version of Gordon Willis’ work on The Godfather. Production designer James Chinlund creates an oppressive, hermetically sealed Gotham City that feels like a playground for organizations that reward his kind of creativity. And even after following in the estimable footsteps of Danny Elfman and Hans Zimmer, Michael Giacchino creates a musical backdrop for the character’s conflicted heroism that stands apart and sets a new precedent for a Batman theme. Additionally, the prosthetics used to transform Colin Farrell are absolutely gobsmacking in their realism and subtlety, but it’s the actor’s performance in the role that really sells the technique. And if he doesn’t bring home a nomination, Paul Dano is at least as worthy as the maniac that rallied Gotham’s incels. [Todd Gilchrist]

With his second narrative feature, multitalented filmmaker Kogonada adapts Alexander Weinstein’s story “Saying Goodbye To Yang” into a beautiful meditation on family and loss that simultaneously touches on some important contemporary issues about technology, privacy, and human identity, an interpretation and examination eminently worthy of a screenplay Oscar nod. Meanwhile, Colin Farrell’s performance as a dad whose attempt to support Yang, a companion robot called a “technosapien,” leads him down a path of personal discovery may prove too understated for the Academy—which so frequently seems to reward the “most” acting instead of the best. But Farrell gives a remarkable dimensionality to the transformation that occurs when his character looks at the reflection cast by Yang’s snapshots of his family. [Todd Gilchrist]

Writer-director Domee Shi won an Oscar for her short film Bao, so she’s already set a precedent that may lead to her winning another for Pixar’s . The film’s screenplay is a marvel of specificity and yet relatability as it tells the tumultuous story of a young woman’s emotional volatility as she enters adolescence, and could easily attract nominations for costume and production design in addition to its seemingly inevitable nod for Best Animated Feature. Additionally, composer Ludwig Goransson straddles the line between music that honors Shi’s Asian-Canadian heritage and the broader saccharine sweetness of pre-fab pop that she and her friends are obsessed with. And finally, hot on the heels of their win for the title theme of No Time To Die, Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas contribute three songs that similarly manage to capture the irresistible energy of boy band hits and still somehow appeal to audiences who might have outgrown their pre-sexual charms. [Todd Gilchrist]

Given its February release date, HBO Max’s is a super longshot for any of the major awards categories. But director Steven Soderbergh’s straight-to-streaming COVID-era thriller might have a shot at Best Original Screenplay—if only for its deftly handled relevance. Screenwriter David Koepp, known for films like Stir Of Echoes and Premium Rush, delivers an inventive caper in this remarkably clever script centered on the dangers of big tech. Zoë Kravitz stars as Angela, a software administrator who overhears what she thinks is a violent crime on her company’s flagship artificial assistant “KIMI.” The result is a modern Rear Window as searingly funny as it is painfully spot-on. Again, it’s a bit outside of an outside chance—but any reason to plug a hidden gem, right? [Alison Foreman]

We don’t want to forget about the Academy’s documentary race, and by year’s end there will surely be contenders to rival recent winner . But docuseries, rather than one-off feature docs, are experiencing enough of a surge in popularity that the list of feature-length 2023 Oscar contenders could be a bit thin. Luckily, an obvious choice has already premiered and to rave reviews: Amy Poehler’s bowed at January’s Sundance Film Festival and is available to stream on Amazon Prime. Fresh off the heels of the Oscar-nominated Being The Ricardos, this warts-and-all depiction of Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz’s marriage—onscreen in I Love Lucy and off—balances fascinating insights into TV history with genuine romance. Hollywood’s awards voters love Hollywood stories, so go ahead and add this to the shortlist. [Jack Smart]

The wait will for visionary Robert Eggers’ follow-up to The Witch and The Lighthouse, this time a sweeping epic based on the Viking legend of Amleth. If early buzz is any indication, The Northman has as much Oscar-friendly emphasis on historical invention (and reinvention) as it does on pulse-pounding action. Just look at the trailer: Yes, Alexander Skarsgård catches a spear in mid-air, but there’s also Academy favorite Nicole Kidman, rising star Anya Taylor-Joy, and none other than Björk, all giving witchy, scene-stealing vibes. Plus, production designer Craig Lathrop’s stunning longships and director of photography Jarin Blaschke’s Scandinavian vistas look to be automatic award contenders. [Jack Smart]

When was the awards success of Good Luck To You, Leo Grande guaranteed? You might point to rave reviews from its and upcoming distribution from Oscar-dominating Searchlight Pictures, and you might be right. But its greatness was actually predestined since the moment Emma Thompson signed on to play Nancy Stokes, a retired widow daring herself to overcome her uppercrust conservatism and hire a sex worker. Katy Brand’s script and Sophie Hyde’s direction are remarkable considering this story is mostly a two-hander, a seamless, ever-evolving push-pull between two very different characters. Thompson, with so many shrewd depictions of complicated women reckoning with their femininity behind her, was born to play this role. And as the titular sex worker, Daryl McCormack emblazons himself onto the screen and into audiences’ hearts—one of those breakout performances that will have directors clamoring to cast him in everything. [Jack Smart]

Yep, it’s the new Jordan Peele: . Hitting theaters July 22, the third film from everyone’s favorite sketch comedian-turned-horror auteur promises the same big payoffs as and Us—but dang, if we have no idea what they are. Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer, and Steven Yeun play residents of a small California town who, according to promotional materials, “witness a mysterious and abnormal event.” Based on the trailer, we can only assume that’s some sort of weather apocalypse/alien invasion/spontaneous human combustion thing(??) But even without knowing the details, it’s safe to say Peele has a shot at nods from the Academy. First, Get Out broke the horror dry spell in 2018 with four nominations, including a nod for Best Picture and win for Best Original Screenplay. Then, Us won accolades at a bunch of different awards shows (no Oscar nomination, unfortunately) and became the Halloween costume of 2019. Nope is absolutely one to watch. [Alison Foreman]

Will there ever again be a superhero movie as good as ? Returning screenwriter Phil Lord unites with Christopher Miller and David Callaham to answer just that question in Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse. Kicking off October 7, this two-part epic sees Miles Morales (voice of Shameik Moore) return to the big screen with Gwen Stacy (voice of Hailee Steinfeld) to further discover the multiverse. Superhero flicks sometimes struggle to break through at the Oscars (pour one out for Spider-Man: No Way Home), but that really isn’t the case for animated films. That’s assuming this one stays animated—and all three Peter Parkers, Venom, Eddie Brock, and the rest of the live-action spidey-characters don’t get Who Framed Roger Rabbit-ed into it. (Please, oh please, oh please!!) [Alison Foreman]

Killers Of The Flower Moon is directed by Martin Scorsese, stars Leonardo DiCaprio, and is coming to theaters in November. If that doesn’t scream “Oscar nominated” louder than any actual person could ever scream the words “Oscar” or “nominated,” then we just don’t know what does. Adapted from David Grann’s nonfiction book of the same name, this Western crime drama examines a string of murders in the Osage Nation of northwestern Oklahoma during the 1920s. We’ve only seen a single still from the film thus far (see above), but considering Scorsese’s mountain of nominations throughout his career, yet another seems like a safe bet. Perhaps Killers Of The Flower Moon will even earn Scorsese his second Best Director win. [Alison Foreman]

We have spent an ungodly amount of time waiting for the fourth big-screen Thor installment. Yes, Marvel heavyweight Chris Hemsworth played a major role in 2019’s Avengers: Endgame and voiced the animated Thor for Disney+’s What If..? in 2021. But even so, fans have been champing at the bit for another feature-length Thor outing as big and bad as Thor: Ragnarok since way before the pandemic. On July 8, we’ll finally get Thor: Love And Thunder and hopefully fans’ high expectations will be met. Written and directed by the Oscar-winning Taika Waititi and co-starring the Oscar-winning Natalie Portman and Christian Bale, you can bet this title will show up in the 2023 Oscars race as a nominee for Best Visual Effects—at the very least. [Alison Foreman] 

Three-time Oscar nominee David O. Russell’s next movie doesn’t have its title yet, but to put it on a list of 2023 Oscar predictions, we don’t need to wait for one. The cast list alone guarantees that award nominators will be paying attention: Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, John David Washington, Rami Malek, Chris Rock, Zoe Saldana, Anya Taylor-Joy, Michael Shannon, Mike Myers, Robert De Niro, and even Taylor Swift will appear in this film whose only logline so far is “A doctor and a lawyer form an unlikely partnership.” While we can’t yet guess who will be considered lead or supporting, it’s safe to predict this is a contender in next awards season’s acting races. [Jack Smart]

Why has it taken so long for Hollywood to match their beloved (extremely Oscar-friendly) biopic format to the late, great Whitney Houston? Her life practically begs for the big-screen treatment, especially since an actor playing her gets to recreate her electric musical performances. British star Naomi Ackie has been selected from allegedly thousands of choices for I Wanna Dance With Somebody, which is helmed by Harriet director Kasi Lemmons and written by The Two Popes adapter Anthony McCarten. With a December 21 premiere from Sony Pictures Releasing, this buzzy biopic could find Ackie following in the footsteps of countless actors claiming Oscars for embodying real people—the Jessica Chastain and Will Smith among them. [Jack Smart]

There are few topics that Hollywood loves to celebrate more than Hollywood itself, and Damien Chazelle’s golden-age drama about Jack Conrad, Clara Bow, Irving Thalberg, and many of the industry’s early movers and shakers seems poised to generate awards buzz without anyone having seen it. Not that a whole lot in Brad Pitt’s life seems especially difficult by typical mortal standards; he’s been on a roll since before Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and his ease and presence on screen only seems to deepen as his talent grows. As Bow, Robbie may attract her third Oscar nomination, again playing a real-life celebrity after her turn as Tonya Harding in I, Tonya. Meanwhile, Linus Sandgren already earned an Oscar working with Chazelle on La La Land, and has proven himself among the most skilled cinematographers working today. [Todd Gilchrist]

We’ve been hearing about this Searchlight Pictures contender for a while; Next Goal Wins wrapped production even before the pandemic began delaying film release dates. It also has a significant enough pedigree to end up on a list like this one, considering its director, co-writer, and producer is Academy Award winner and Hollywood busybody Taika Waititi. Adapted from the 2014 British documentary of the same name, it’s the story of the worst loss in World Cup history courtesy of the American Samoa soccer team in 2001. In awards contention will be stars Michael Fassbender and Elisabeth Moss, plus the great Will Arnett, who replaced Armie Hammer in reshoots. Expect that Waititi-esque balance of heartfelt drama and silliness to follow in the Oscar-winning footsteps of Jojo Rabbit. [Jack Smart]