How might Dune: Part Two have shifted this year's Oscar race?

Unlike Dune prophet Paul Atreides, we don’t have the opportunity to drink the Water of Life and visualize every possible path our world could take in the past, present, or future. But also unlike Paul, we do have the technology to analyze historical data as well as a vested interest in the outcome of this year’s Oscar race, which will finally reach its conclusion this Sunday, March 10. Would that finale look different if the SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes hadn’t bumped Denis Villeneuve’s epic Dune: Part Two back four months from its originally planned November 2023 release date? We’ll never know for sure, but let’s take some inspiration from Muad’dib himself and try to see the way.

In 2022, Dune (now Part One) managed to score 10 nominations and six wins, an impressive feat for multiple reasons. First, it’s rare for a genre film to do this well, even one as grand as Villeneuve’s first foray into Frank Herbert’s sandy tale. (The Star Wars and Lord Of The Rings films are other examples of similar breakthrough franchises.) Second, it was only the sixth film in Oscar history to earn nominations across all seven technical categories (via Variety), following projects like Titanic, Mad Max: Fury Road, and The Revenant. Those seven categories are Best Sound, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Visual Effects, Best Costume Design, and Best Makeup and Hairstyling, the first five of which it won. The film also won an award for Hans Zimmer’s stirring score and scored two more nominations for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay as well.

This year features an entirely different spread, and 2021 was a unique Oscar year due to the pandemic. That all being said, let’s assume that Dune’s bigger and better sequel would have been up for the same awards, plus one for Best Director—a snub from 2021, if you ask this writer—because this is our vision and we say so. (We won’t touch acting awards for now since there’s no past precedent for it, and it’s harder for franchise performances to break into these categories anyway. That being said, we’d love to be surprised when the film is actually up for Oscar consideration next year.)

What could Dune: Part Two have won, and what would have been snubbed?

This is obviously completely speculative, but please indulge us in the thought experiment. Starting with the big ones, Dune: Part Two could have definitely scored a nomination in the Best Picture and Best Director categories, although it’s still unlikely that it would have passed frontrunners Oppenheimer or Christopher Nolan for the gold. As for which films would be bumped, it’s probably Past Lives for Best Picture (owing to the fact that it was snubbed in both the acting and directing categories). Director is harder, but Nolan, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Martin Scorsese are definitely safe.

Score is a little more challenging. Hans Zimmer would have had a real chance to win his second award for the franchise, but Ludwig Göransson has the power of hype and freshness on his side for Oppenheimer. The snub here would likely be American Fiction. John Williams won’t win for Indiana Jones And The Dial of Destiny, but c’mon… no one’s going to not nominate John Williams. The film definitely could have snagged a nod for Adapted Screenplay as well, which would probably mean bye-bye Barbie.

As for the technical categories, this is where desert power could have really challenged nuclear power. While it’s impossible to say for sure, it’s not hard to imagine a Dune: Part Two repeat victory in any (or maybe even all) of the categories it previously won, many of which are currently predicted to go to Oppenheimer. The film that would likely suffer the most from this shakeup is Napoleon, which would stand to be bumped from its only three nominations in the Production Design, Costume Design, and Visual Effects categories. Cinematography is challenging, but it would likely lose Maestro and sound would probably dump either The Creator or Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One. Makeup And Hairstyling and Film Editing are tougher to call; the former would be either Golda (a similar visual project to Maestro but with far less finesse) or Society Of The Snow, while the latter category is so stacked it’s hard to imagine any of the nominated films getting the boot. (Those are: Anatomy Of A Fall, The Holdovers, Killers Of The Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.) In all honesty, Part Two probably wouldn’t have made the cut here.

What will happen next year?

The short answer is that it’s far too early to say. (Sorry, everyone: we don’t actually have Paul’s prescient insight.) But if the rabid response to the biggest movie of the year so far is anything to go by, expect Part Two to be a major player in the 2025 showdown, despite its early-year release. It might even fare better for having been released this year as opposed to last, with no Oppenheimers (at least that we’re aware of thus far) to challenge it for the throne.

That being said, Dune: Part Two wasn’t the only movie delayed due to the strike. Luca Guadagnino’s tennis film Challengers was also pushed back, and could definitely be a contender for some of these prizes. Could we see Zendaya nominated for both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress? It’s unlikely… but not impossible! Of course, that’s not to mention all of the other promising films still to come as the year rolls on. We know we just said that we don’t have Paul’s powers, but we really don’t need any blue sandworm bile to predict that this is going to be a great year for cinema.